Re: The daily link
Posted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:59 pm
Warning, this vid is not suitable for work - or some sensibilities. On the other hand, it's hilarious if you've been following the exploits of John MacAfee of late. For those not in the know, well, it isn't his fault anymore - he sold his POS antivirus company 15 years ago, and has been a travelling millionaire nutcase ever since...and this kind of proves it in a fun way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... Kgf5PaBzyg
For those who might be wondering about why this thread has changed direction so drastically, it's because I got out of the markets for awhile - vacation among other things. I've always made money despite knowing how rigged they are - but they've gone so insane it's just dumb to play - even if you're the house, which I am not. I *knew* they were going to go down, darnit, but there's a short sqeeze that's killed me too many times in a row, so I decided to just get out for awhile. There might be the short of a lifetime coming up - but I'll wait for the middle of that move, if there is one, to get back in (probably short). We'll just have to see.
Right now, leverage is at an all time high. Bad paper swaps are at way over 10x the world GDP, bankers claim they are net zero hedges, which is *almost* true if no counter-party fails and drops all the dominoes.
But, according to some recent news, since the EU hasn't directly recapitalized their banks, like we did (actually we went past that point), DB, whose only bailout is indirect through the EU giving the Greeks money to give the Germans - is at a cap ratio under 2% - over 50x leverage, no room for error at all. With JGBs and Abenomics going nutzo - there WILL be an error, and that's one hell of a counter-party that could easily go down - and do one hell of a lot of collateral (pun intended, there's a world wide shortage of un rehypothecated collateral just now) damage to everyone else.
So, we have Japan as a bug in search of a windshield. We have the largest German bank so undercapitalized they didn't list it on the recent stress tests, because as Juncker said "when times are really hard, you have to lie". Every single asset class is overbought, and by far riskier than most assume under the old models due to this overleverage, and the unregulated 700 trillion plus shadow paper market. This could go "Boom" anytime now - from tomorrow to a couple years - no one can pick the moment, as Kyle says here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... JfvLADP3HE
But for me, it's just time to be out and enjoy life a little with less stress. More fun to do things in the lab anyway, and lose this addiction to sitting in front of a computer for 16 hours a day, trading, reading news, planning trading, worrying money and so on. So, I'm taking a break - it's fun-time in Floyd anyway. Kyle's good for those of you who still want that kind of thing, however. That man is a genius. And all just by collecting available data and doing simple math to it - seems everyone else has just been too lazy to look for the obvious, or to cognitively biased to think to look.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... Kgf5PaBzyg
For those who might be wondering about why this thread has changed direction so drastically, it's because I got out of the markets for awhile - vacation among other things. I've always made money despite knowing how rigged they are - but they've gone so insane it's just dumb to play - even if you're the house, which I am not. I *knew* they were going to go down, darnit, but there's a short sqeeze that's killed me too many times in a row, so I decided to just get out for awhile. There might be the short of a lifetime coming up - but I'll wait for the middle of that move, if there is one, to get back in (probably short). We'll just have to see.
Right now, leverage is at an all time high. Bad paper swaps are at way over 10x the world GDP, bankers claim they are net zero hedges, which is *almost* true if no counter-party fails and drops all the dominoes.
But, according to some recent news, since the EU hasn't directly recapitalized their banks, like we did (actually we went past that point), DB, whose only bailout is indirect through the EU giving the Greeks money to give the Germans - is at a cap ratio under 2% - over 50x leverage, no room for error at all. With JGBs and Abenomics going nutzo - there WILL be an error, and that's one hell of a counter-party that could easily go down - and do one hell of a lot of collateral (pun intended, there's a world wide shortage of un rehypothecated collateral just now) damage to everyone else.
So, we have Japan as a bug in search of a windshield. We have the largest German bank so undercapitalized they didn't list it on the recent stress tests, because as Juncker said "when times are really hard, you have to lie". Every single asset class is overbought, and by far riskier than most assume under the old models due to this overleverage, and the unregulated 700 trillion plus shadow paper market. This could go "Boom" anytime now - from tomorrow to a couple years - no one can pick the moment, as Kyle says here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... JfvLADP3HE
But for me, it's just time to be out and enjoy life a little with less stress. More fun to do things in the lab anyway, and lose this addiction to sitting in front of a computer for 16 hours a day, trading, reading news, planning trading, worrying money and so on. So, I'm taking a break - it's fun-time in Floyd anyway. Kyle's good for those of you who still want that kind of thing, however. That man is a genius. And all just by collecting available data and doing simple math to it - seems everyone else has just been too lazy to look for the obvious, or to cognitively biased to think to look.